A Re-Evaluation of the Causes of Deformation in 1Cr-1Mo-0.25V Steel for Turbine Rotors and Shafts Based on iso-Thermal Plots of the Wilshire Equation and the Modelling of Batch to Batch Variation

The aims of this paper were to: (a) demonstrate how iso-thermal plots of the Wilshire equation can be used to identify the correct structure of this equation (which in turn enables a meaningful description of the creep mechanism involved in deformation to be made); and (b) show how a generalized specification of batch to batch variation could produce less conservative predictions of the time to failure associated with a given degree of risk. Such predictions were obtained using maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of a generalised F distribution. It was found that the original Wilshire-Scharning assumption of a constant activation energy for this materials is incorrect. Consequently, their interpretation of deformation being due only to dislocation creep with deteriorating microstructure at long duration test times appears to be ill founded, with the varying activation energy suggesting instead that deformation is due to grain boundary sliding accommodated by either dislocation and diffusional creep with dominance changing from the lattice to the grain boundaries as the temperature changes. Modelling batch to batch variation as a function of stress also resulted in a 50% extended safe life prediction (corresponding to a 1% chance of failure) at 873 K and 47 MPa.